The convergence of economic cycles in Latin America: a critical review of the scientific literature
Keywords:
Latin America; economic cycles; cyclical convergence; cycle synchronization.Abstract
The article analyzed the current state of research on the convergence of economic cycles in Latin America through a critical review of the relevant literature. The objective was to determine whether economic cycles in the region have tended to synchronize over time and what factors drive such synchronization. To this end, a systematic review methodology was applied, using academic search platforms, databases, and directories. Inclusion criteria were established: publication from 2020 onward, availability in Spanish or English, scientific article format, empirical focus, and thematic relevance; and exclusion criteria: length under four pages, thesis or book format, and duplicates. The analysis shows that evidence of a common economic cycle in Latin America is scarce. Although episodes of subregional convergence are observed, synchronization varies between countries and depends heavily on international trade. Trade flows carry more weight than financial ones in short-term cyclical comovements, and the region maintains a strong dependence on external shocks, especially since the 2008 crisis. In conclusion, there is no clear or consistent trend towards cyclical convergence across the entire region.
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